SynLube™
Lube-4-Life®
SynLube™
Lube-4-Life®
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Many of our new or prospective customers frequently ask:
“If I use all SynLube™
Lube-4-Life® products in my new vehicle, will it last FOREVER?”
Of course, they expect us to answer simply: “YES”,
but unfortunately the reality is quite different!
Not because SynLube™
Lube-4-Life® does not perform as advertised, but mainly because
their new or nearly new vehicle has NOT been designed to last indefinitely!
Forever of course has a personal definition as well.
To one person owning the same car for 3 or 4 years may
seem like “forever” and he or she is
“totally” ready for a new vehicle.
Yet another person who has nice looking “clean” vehicle that is 7 years old and
has over 70,000 miles may in his or her mind think of it as “still new”!
So before we go into great detail about what SynLube™ Lube-4-Life® can and can not do, let’s examine some
unpleasant realities of “car life” and the current status quo of the automotive
industry.
When vehicles of all types just started to be an
acceptable replacement for horse and buggy, the level of automotive engineering
was almost nonexistent.
Vehicle manufacturers were either home based barn
projects, or an outgrowth of companies that made anything from horse drawn carriages,
bicycles, rail road cars or even bar soap.
If the vehicle actually ran, and got you somewhere from
point A to point B and also back, it was in itself a major achievement.
In
the early 1900s there were dozens of automobile manufacturers in the United
States, and many more worldwide. Many of these manufacturers and automobile
parts companies joined trade groups that met their needs for promoting business
and raising public awareness of this new form of transportation. A need for
patent protection, common technical design problems, and the development of
engineering standards was quickly emerging and many engineers in the automobile
business expressed a desire to have "free exchange of ideas" in order
to expand their individual technical knowledge base.
Two
magazine men of that era: Peter Heldt of The Horseless Age, and Horace Swetland of The
Automobile were tireless advocates of the concepts that forged the creation
of SAE.
Heldt wrote an editorial in June of 1902 in which he said, "Now there is a
noticeable tendency for automobile manufacturers to follow certain accepted
lines of construction, technical questions constantly arise which seek solution
from the cooperation of the technical men connected with the industry. These
questions could best be dealt with by a technical society. The field of
activity for this society would be the purely technical side of
automobiles."
A mere 27 months after Heldt's editorial the Society of Automobile Engineers was born.
The SAE still exists today (www.sae.org)
The crowning achievement of the era was the famous FORD Model T, which made mobility for
the masses an achievable as well as affordable reality.
The Model T was introduced on October
1, 1908, and production continued as late as 1927; the final total production
was 15,007,034. This record stood for the next 45 years.
Low cost and simplicity were far more popular that
reliability or durability.
FORD Motor Company is still in business today.
By contrast almost all of their rivals that made better and more durable cars,
which were hand made and much more expensive all eventually went out of
business or were absorbed into General Motors
or Chrysler.
Today in 2010 Chrysler is bankrupt and General Motors will soon follow the suit
Keeping any vehicle “forever”
was not ever the objective for anyone but the very few that were extremely rich.
Few cars of those limited production automobiles are
today still in “running shape”.
These seldom driven and even seldom started always garaged
examples of automotive opulence indeed seem to last “forever”.
Their normal residence is in numerous automotive museums
around the World or in private garages of wealthy car collectors.
None of these “forever” vehicles are or have ever been a “daily
drivers”.
Some examples of FORD
Model T also survive, mostly because of the almost infinite supply of
“donor” cars, which made their resurrections possible. However finding one of those old timers in
original condition today is almost a miracle.
The few “originals” that are known to exist are also
permanently parked in museums and private collections.
During the “boom” years after the WW II, when the USA and
Western Europe got back to business making cars rather than tanks and trucks
for the military, having a new car every model year was the ultimate status
symbol. No one who could afford it could even think of ownership that extended
past 18 months. If you were somebody, anybody you just got a new car as often
as possible.
Doing valve jobs, engine overhauls, major transmission
repairs after 30,000 miles of driving was not uncommon and the 3,000 miles
“service” was the norm.
Most vehicles did not even run reliably to go that long
between “tune-ups” as Spark Plugs, Ignition Points, Ignition Condensers, Motor Oil,
Oil Filter and Air filter needed to be replaced that often.
Tires did not last, and many had “inner tubes” that quite
often did not survive a single Sunday drive!
But that was the norm and the motoring public was quite
used to have lot of service and maintenance done in just about any “Service
Station” that did not just sell the required fuel but also provided Oil, Oil
Changes, Hoses, Belts, Wipers, and so on.
Until 1966 car business was “free for all” any company
just anywhere on Earth that made any vehicle sold some of them in USA, there
were no safety regulations, there were no emission regulations, there were no
restriction, with the exception of extremely high import duty for vehicles made
in the Communist block.
When GM
introduced the answer to the VW “bug” invasion from West Germany with the
infamous Corvair, one person in
particular (Ralph Nader) decided to rain on their party!
The Chevrolet Corvair was produced from 1959 to
1969 with 1,786,243 cars being made.
Safety issues were raised, especially by Ralph
Nader's 1965 book Unsafe at Any Speed.[
Nader followed the book with big self run campaign to the
US congress. His effort eventually resulted in the formation of “Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards”
(FMVSS) that are administered by NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Agency)
which is an integral part of “Department
of Transportation” (DOT).
“Unsafe
at Any Speed” is often characterized as the book
"about the Corvair", though only one of the book's
eight chapters covers the Corvair. The theme of tire pressures chosen for
comfort rather than safety is recurrent, and the main theme throughout is the
way in which the motor industry evaded even well-founded and technically
informed criticism.
Nader's advocacy of automobile safety and the publicity
generated by the publication of Unsafe at Any Speed, along with concern
over escalating nationwide traffic fatalities, led to the unanimous passage of
the 1966 National Traffic and
Motor Vehicle Safety Act. The act established the National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration, and marked a historic
shift in responsibility for automobile safety from the consumer to the
manufacturer. The legislation mandated a series of safety features for
automobiles, beginning with safety belts and stronger windshields.
So suddenly there was a Federal US mandate that vehicle
had to be “safe” before they could be imported into USA or sold to US consumers
by anyone.
The boutique imported brands mostly vanished overnight,
which was far more profitable for GM
than the loss of Corvair.
But to just anyone’s great shock the “obsolete” VW “Bug”, was quickly reincarnated to the “New Bug” and without missing even month
of sales managed to meet all the enacted safety regulations as they become
effective.
VW
Bug
was perhaps the only vehicle that was still manufactured so that one could if
he or she wanted to “keep it forever”. The famous derivatives of VW by PORSCHE also were keepers, since parts to keep those running were
available.
From US made vehicles FORD again had the top winner with the famous FORD Mustang, which although not
durable was made in such huge quantities, that plentiful donor cars were
commonly available for perpetual resurrection of one’s coveted Mustang, almost indefinitely.
Mustang was initially based on the Ford Falcon, a
compact car. Production began in Dearborn, Michigan on
9 March, 1964 and the car was introduced to the public on 17 April 1964 at the New York World's Fair.
Original sales forecasts projected less than 100,000
units for the first year, but in its first eighteen months, more than one
million Mustangs were built
Environmental concerns did not lag too much behind
safety. Serious “smog” events in Los Angeles,
California gave a wake up call to politicians, that safer more durable
cars may keep their drivers alive in accidental collision, but will certainly
choke them to death with their exhaust.
The
Clean Air Act Extension of 1970 (84 Stat. 1676, Public Law 91-604) is a United
States federal law
that requires the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to develop and enforce
regulations to protect the general public from exposure to airborne contaminants that are known to be hazardous to
human health. This law is an amendment to the Clean Air Act originally passed in 1963.
This time Engelhard Corporation got the winning
card, the magic of Platinum in the newly engineered “Catalytic Converter” that was simply plumbed into the exhaust of
the common gas hog, and the World once again was saved!
Engelhard
Corporation is a
former Fortune 500 company headquartered in Iselin, New Jersey. It is credited with developing the
first production catalytic
converter. In 2006, BASF
bought Engelhard for $5 billion.
But restricted exhaust increased engine running
temperatures, the platinum was not happy with lead commonly used in gasoline to
increase the Octane Rating, so newly formulated “Unleaded Gasoline” became the required norm.
This reduced engine durability, as the self lubricating
qualities of the lead were lost.
The early “smog” cars were just a big step backward in
performance and durability and even reliability suffered.
The alternate answer by GM to the “smog” challenge was poorly engineered “diesel” engine
which was based on “gasoline” version of the same unit – a total disaster!
So cars in the 1970’s were definitely not candidates for
“forever” ownership.
By mid 1980’s there were but few vehicles that still
utilized carburetor, most had Fuel Injection systems, of which the BOSCH “L”
Electronic system was indisputably the best of the best.
Improved metallurgy that was direct result of the poor
durability of the earlier “smog” engines has reached about the peak, and
finally if you planned for it, you could have kept your 1985 to 1989 vintage well
maintained car almost “forever”.
Few people however did as the increases in fuel prices,
fuel shortages and other incidents made the bigger cars just too expensive to
keep.
But this is the period when smaller Import manufacturers
like TOYOTA and HONDA got their reputation for durability, but incidentally even
the rather rare BERTONE
X1/9 with FIAT power train could easily outlast typical American
made car many times over!
Odometer mileages of over 100,000 miles become so common
that manufacturers had to start selling new cars with 6 digit odometers so that
mileages of over 100,000 miles could be reliably recorded.
The only cars of that period whose odometers only
registered to 99,999 miles were the iconic YUGO,
which incidentally did not feature Fuel Injection until their demise for US
market in 1992.
This is the short era of “forever” automobiles, they were made much better than they had to
be, and over improved and over engineered in comparison to the mid 1970’s
vehicles which as bad as they were caused this phenomenon to occur.
Durability and reliability of TOYOTA and MERCEDES-BENZ
of that vintage made them “legendary”
even till today, although nowadays that is truly only a legend, as it is not
longer true fact.
These are the years that automotive industry reached an
undisputable plateau.
It had all the knowledge and technology to build vehicles
that could be designed to last 25 years or more!
The estimated cost of making such a durable car was only
$700 more per unit!
But who would want to own just two or three vehicles in
their driving lifetime, which in USA is about 50 years, and much less than that
in most of rest of the World.
Also automobile industry Worldwide progressed from making
cars into just assembling them!
This subtle difference however is extremely important, as
no manufacturer was any more capable of making the entire car; rather all
components were sourced from component suppliers.
So vehicles made by such life long rivals as GM and FORD would now have piston rings in their engines made by the same
supplier, connecting rods made by another supplier and brake pads from yet
another.
Company that made seats for FORD would make them for Chrysler
and Jeep, and so on.
GM and
TOYOTA shared parts on many smaller
car models, to the extent that some models were made on the same assembly line
and only differed in the “badge” attached to the vehicle, and so on.
But most important development was not request for better
quality or improved durability, but rather for MINIMUM possible price for the
component part.
In conjunction with the Emission Durability System
regulations, there was no reason for example why fuel injector should last more
than 10 years or 100,000 miles when the “responsibility” for the vehicle ended
in theory with the 5 year or 50,000 mile “Useful Life” for most vehicles.
Aluminum radiators with plastic headers started to
replace the “forever” fixable designs
made from Copper alloys.
Plastic components became acceptable and belt driven
overhead camshafts became the norm in most engines replacing the “forever” design of Classic American V-8 with
very reliable in-the-block cam with push rods.
Sales started to be measured in 10 days performance
levels, rather than in monthly or annual numbers.
Selling more than the year before was no longer as
important, as selling much more than in the previous 10 days!
Every manufacturer in the World predicted incredible
production capacity gains for the future, without any concern about the fact
that there may not be enough new vehicle buyers in the World for all the cars
that can be manufactured in any 10 day period!
The constant demand from the OEM’s that now only
assembled vehicles was to their Suppliers in a form of borderline “extortion”.
Make the parts cheaper (not better) or we will buy them from someone else who will !
The secondary request was to make the component parts
such as to be quickly installable during final assembly, with no regard to
future serviceability, maintenance or reparability.
For last 20 years every manufacturer’s objective was not
to make more durable vehicle, but to make it cheaper, and to make it
faster. Every OEM (Original Equipment
Manufacturer) of vehicle continually pressed the automotive parts suppliers to
cut costs, at all costs.
The 3 to 4 year new vehicle owner became the “model” for
the car industry, and to those that did not feel good about purchasing a new
car every 3 to 4 years, a new alternative to buying was greatly promoted – “leasing”.
By leasing a car for at most 48 months (24 months to 36
months being the norm) one was “forced” to get new car when lease expired.
Direct results are cars where aluminum components that
had a half life of 25 years were almost universally replaced with plastic which
at best last 7 to 9 years.
Examples of the planned to fail design are plastic header
aluminum core radiators, which can not be fixed and cost hundreds of dollars to
replace. If the entire radiator was from
aluminum then it would indeed last “forever”
or at least 2 to 3 times longer, the cost of production almost nearly identical
and possibility of repair by welding a reality. Yet no manufacturer utilizes
such “simple” solution to assure durability and reliability.
Another example is plastic intake manifolds, which crack,
warp, and fail in various ways.
This extends to Coolant header tanks and even internal
engine and transmission components where plastics replace hard metal parts
which would normally last “forever”.
The perhaps most ridiculous application of plastic is in
Water Pumps on VW and AUDI engines where the stainless steel
impeller (which would last “forever”) has been replaced with “plastic” so that
it very reliably fails in 70,000 miles or less.
Good quality double row ball bearing with stainless steel
impeller has the potential to last “forever”,
but the plastic one is guaranteed to fail, not if, just when, is the question.
·
Visteon is spun off from the Ford
Motor Company in 2000
and becomes an Independent Company.
Why does any OEM go out of their way to engineer and
design in components that are guaranteed to fail eventually?
The economic incentive is not just the possibility of
sales of NEW vehicle, but the elimination of certain penalties that are levied
against OEM by the Clean Air Act.
Under the Act, manufacturer is responsible for the
emissions from the vehicle for the life of the vehicle, and if “old” vehicles
stay on the road and are driven and pollute the air, they can and do get hefty
fines.
If the “older” car just breaks down and is too expensive
to fix, it is “retired” and can no longer pollute the air if it is scrapped in
junk yard. Better yet if it is dismantled and the materials are recycled,
because then the “donor” cars vanish from the World and keeping the car of any
“obsolete” vintage running “forever’
becomes an impossibility.
The fact that OEM’s are being fined for in use vehicles
shortcomings in the emission category are usually only known to the “insiders”
of the automotive industry.
Theoretically it is a matter of a “public” record, but just
try to get disclosure from companies like TOYOTA or HONDA or CHRYSLER or MERCEDES-BENZ about the millions in
fines they have already paid in recent years.
Find this to be “unbelievable”?
Just see few of the “public” yet well “hidden” documents
we have been able to obtain about fines.
TOYOTA –
Engines die from mysterious “gel” formation, transmissions have no dip sticks
to check for fluid level and no provision to add or change the fluid.
Vehicles with over 70,000 miles when the emission
performance warranty expires start having mysterious illuminations of the MIL
(Malfunction Indicator Light) that is commonly known as the “Check Engine
Light”. The only cure is “re-flashing”
the ECM (Electronic Control Module) that runs the engine which costs hundreds
of dollars, and not under any warranty, yet in places where “smog check” is a
pre-requisite of getting renewal for vehicle registration (Most of California
for example) this is real pain for the owner that wants to keep the now “obsolete”
TOYOTA “forever”.
MERCEDES
BENZ
– Electronic gremlins and CAN (Central Area Network) miss communications are
the faults that plaque the brand.
FORD –
engines spit out Spark Plugs, Ignition Locks lock you out, clutches in manual
transmission cars fail prematurely (perhaps to teach you a lesson to never
again own anything but automatic), engine mounts that fail, intake manifolds
(plastic of course) that have various problems, etc.
And Diesel engines in F series trucks; those are simply
horribly unreliable and fail due to numerous reasons.
CHRYSLER
(also DODGE, JEEP) – No fuel filters should tip you off about how serious
Chrysler is about “lifetime power train warranty”. The hope is that the fuel filter which is
built into the gas tank will be good for the life of the vehicle which is 7
years or 70,000 miles.
And of course the ever present “plastic” internal
components that are not intended to last much longer either.
BMW –
same idea as the above that goes even further, fuel pump, fuel filter, fuel
level gauge, charcoal canister for evaporative emission control, fuel tank and
of course the CAN computer interface are all ONE Integral $1,000 + unit, so if
any of those components need servicing you just replace the entire assembly
which in many BMW vehicles is actually a major labor effort.
We can go on and on!
Also this is not limited to just the above few listed manufacturers; it
is the industry status quo.
So to have 2010 MY vehicle of any make and have the
intent to keep it “forever” just may
be quite an impossible dream and even harder to achieve than with cars that are
100 year old, as they were only a mechanical contraption, while a modern car is
electro-electronic nightmare with multiple embedded computers that are just
incidentally attached to a “vehicle”.
Today in just a day, with CNC quick prototyping and fully
computer controlled machining; you can manufacture almost any “simple”
mechanical part. The part that was made in the not too a distant past mostly by
hand and skill controlled process.
But you can not get the “code” or even the electronic
component parts for any of the modern “new” vehicles, and if OEM exhausts the
spare part bin after production ends, there simply are no more “assemblies” to
replace the failed units, what ever they may be!
How do they dare ?
Simply they got the hint from computer industry as well
as software providers !
Accounting principles have been the same for 100 years,
yet if for example you are using “Peachtree Accounting” since it became popular
in 1980’s, you would be now on about the 15th upgrade for the 2010
version ! Why ?
Simply because the 1985 model of Radio Shack Computer is
no longer serviceable, the memory chips are not available, the CPU if it fails
is history, and the 5 inch floppies for it are about as popular as 8-track
player, and so on….
Even the 1985 computer could process the Accounting Input
information 10 to 15 times faster than any human being can ever type it into
the computer, so there never ever was real legitimate need to “upgrade” your
accounting software or even the computer itself.
Yet the media to store that information on became
obsolete and unavailable at any price, the printers and supplies for them to
print out that “Balance Sheet” are not available, and so on.
So now like it or not you need the 15th
“upgrade” to add two numbers or balance your checkbook 2,500 times faster than
you can type that information in, but of course now you can see it on LCD
screen in over 2 million color combinations and print it on Laser Color printer
few seconds later.
Do we really need this to balance the checkbook? Of course not, but that is what makes modern
industry churn out much MORE stuff than the human population even at 6 billion
strong can ever use up in their lifetimes.
Industry growth is not based on need, but more on want
and above all the trends of “style” or “fashion” as well as convincing people
that they “must” have what they did not ever even dreamed they could possibly
would ever “need” or “want”.
You would not expect your latest VISTA (or is it Windows
7 now ???) Lap top to last and function but few years,
or would you? The Lithium Ion battery
will cost you more few years latter than the computer is worth, and just try to
get a memory or CPU chip for 10 year old computer !!!
You should have the same expectations for currently made 2010
MY cars, they are foremost “computers” and will end up to be as fixable as your
10 year old lap top – it may look like “new” but it will just not function,
same will eventually happen to your car, so expect it !
Keeping any new modern car forever is about as practical
idea as planning to have your latest lap top functional 10 years from now!
Another implication is that the volume of
software needed for each car is growing rapidly. Ford’s 2005 models contained
between two and three million lines of code. 2007/2008 vehicles have an
average of six million lines of code. The company is expecting about 10 million
lines of code in its vehicles in 2010. In looking at the development costs for
all this software (which is mainly written by outside suppliers), Ford
has made it a priority to increase the amount of code that gets reused."
Just think it is the guy in Bangladesh that just came to work in a rikshaw that writes the code, on which your 2010 MY car operates.....
So
“grow up” and “forget it” !
So now that you know what you can and should expect from
your new 2010 MY vehicle, you can still benefit from use of SynLube™ Lube-4-Life® - today the only
items that are serviceable on modern vehicles are:
1.) Fluids
2.) Some
filters on some cars
3.) Tires
4.) Brakes
We can definitely take care of the MOTOR OIL as all
vehicles still have factory fill Motor Oil that needs to be changed frequently,
on many new vehicles especially with CVT and on many Automatics like TOYOTA the ATF (Automatic Transmission
Fluid) can no longer be checked or added (sealed for life), PSF (Power Steering
Fluid) can also be changed if it is present (some cars have now electric power
assist steering), and of course in the old fashioned Rear Wheel Drive vehicles
the most neglected automotive fluid (out of sight out of mind) is the
Differential Oil; it too can be serviced with SynLube.
Many of our customers do not realize that we also have “Long
Life Coolant”, which can make your coolant hoses last much longer and keep them
from deterioration. But great coolant is another fluid that you definitely need
if you wish to keep your vehicle “forever”.
For many applications we also have MicroGlass Oil
Filters, but unfortunately also many new car designs now use more inferior “cartridge” oil filters, so a better
filter is not an option on those.
Used SynLube
Motor Oil when applied to the side walls of tires can substantially prolong the
tire life especially in hot, smoggy and ozone prone areas as it prevents the
sidewall deterioration and cracking.
DOT 5.1 Long Life Brake Fluid can keep your vehicle’s
brake system functioning properly and especially can prevent the ABS system
from failing due to the “goo” that low quality brake fluids generate.
While 2009 was a disastrous year for Automobile Industry
everywhere, except for China, it also marks definite END of a TREND in USA. The
fact that New Vehicle Sales plummeted from previous “normal” of 16 million to
just 10 million, but more important is the fact that cars scrapped exceeded new car sales
in 2009 for the first time since World War II, shrinking the U.S. vehicle fleet
from the all-time high of 250 million to 246 million.
Last year
the 14 million cars scrapped rose above the 10 million new cars sold, reducing
the fleet by 4 million, or nearly 2 percent, since 2008’s levels.
Among the trends keeping sales well
below the annual average of 16 million that prevailed from 1994 through 2007
are market saturation, ongoing urbanization, economic uncertainty, oil
insecurity, rising gasoline prices, frustration with traffic congestion,
mounting concerns about climate change, and a declining interest in cars among
young people.
Market saturation may be the
dominant contributor to the peaking. The U.S. now has 246 million registered
motor vehicles and 209 million licensed drivers – nearly five vehicles for
every four drivers.
Japan may offer some clues to the
future in USA. Japan being both more densely populated and more highly urbanized
than the United States. Japan apparently reached car saturation in 1990. Since
then its annual car sales have shrunk by 21 percent. The United States appears
set to follow suit.
The car promised mobility, and in a
largely rural United States it delivered. Now with four out of five Americans living
in cities, the growth in urban car numbers at some point provides just the
opposite: Immobility. The Texas Transportation Institute reports that U.S.
congestion costs, including fuel wasted and time lost, climbed from $17 billion
in 1982 to $87 billion in 2007.
Almost every U.S. city is either
introducing new light rail lines, new subway lines, or express bus lines, or
they are expanding and improving existing public transit systems in order to
reduce dependence on cars. Among the cities following this path are Phoenix,
Seattle, Houston, Nashville, and Washington, D.C. As urban transit systems
expand and improve, commuters are turning to public transit as driving costs
rise. Between 2005 and 2008, transit ridership climbed 9 percent.
Many communities are also actively
creating pedestrian and bicycle-friendly streets, making it easier to walk or
bike to work.
Forward-looking cities are also
reconsidering parking requirements for new buildings. Washington, D.C., for
example, has rewritten its 50-year-old codes, reducing the number of parking spaces
required with the construction of both commercial and residential buildings.
Earlier codes that once required four parking spaces for every 1,000 square
feet of retail space now require only one.
A more specific uncertainty is the
future price of gasoline. Now that motorists know that gas prices can climb to over
$4.00 per US Gallon, they worry that it could go even higher in the future.
Drivers are fully aware that much of the world’s oil comes from the politically
volatile Middle East.
Perhaps the most fundamental social
trend affecting the future of the automobile is the declining interest in cars
among young people. For those who grew up a half-century ago in a country that
was still heavily rural, getting a driver’s license and a car or a pickup was a
rite of passage. Getting other teenagers into a car and driving around was a
popular pastime.
In contrast, many of today’s young
people living in a more urban society learn to live without cars. They
socialize on the Internet and on smart phones, not in cars. Many do not even
bother to get a driver’s license.
This helps explain why, despite the
largest U.S. teenage population ever, the number of teenagers with licenses,
which peaked at 12 million in 1978, is now under 10 million. If this trend
continues, the number of potential young car-buyers will continue to decline.
Beyond their declining interest in
cars, young people are facing a financial squeeze. Incomes among a large
segment of society are no longer increasing. College graduates already saddled
with college loan debt may find it difficult to get the credit to buy a car.
No one knows how many cars will be
sold in the years ahead, but given the many forces at work, U.S. vehicle sales
may never again reach the 17 million that were sold each year between 1999 and
2007. Sales seem more likely to remain between 10 million and 14 million per
year.
By contrast all the Automobile
marketers in USA once again forecast increase in their own sales in the near
future, totally disregarding the fact that if ALL those forecasts would
materialize the vehicle sales would have to be in 25 million range, or at least
twice what will be achieved even under the most optimistic circumstances.
Currently no company is willing to
structure their business model on ½ the sales volume of their peak years, and
thus most are doomed for certain failure, more bankruptcies and going totally
out of business in the previously number one market – the USA.
It is doubtful that FIAT/CHRYSLER
will survive for another 2 years, for sure there is no market for 500,000 FIAT
500 minicars that are planned to be made in Mexico. At the same time the number
one minicar specialist SUZUKI is quietly contemplating total exist from US
market ala the style set up few years ago by ISUZU.
On the other hand companies that are
yet to exist are proclaiming to build new factories (with US Government money)
to build millions of electric and hybrid vehicles, which the public has almost
no interest in buying (less than 2 % are even interested).
Bring on the now over 8 million
TOYOTA vehicle recalls for range of safety problems ranging from cars that
accelerate on their own, steer on their own, do not want to stop and have bits
and pieces of suspension parts break and fall off. Add to that over another
million of cars from HONDA that have air bags that turn to shrapnel and either
can injure you or kill you, rather than protect you.
Scrappage rates are easier to
project, if we assume an auto life expectancy of 15 years, scrappage rates will
lag new sales by 15 years. This means that the cars sold in the earliest of the
elevated sales years of 15 million to 17 million vehicles from 1994 through
2007 are just now reaching retirement age.
Even though newer cars are initially
more reliable than earlier models, and may thus stay on the road somewhat
longer on average, scrappage rates seem likely to exceed new car sales. Given a
decline of 1 percent to 2 percent a year in the fleet from 2009 through 2020,
the U.S. fleet could easily shrink by 10 percent (25 million), dropping from
the 2008 fleet peak of 250 million to 225 million by 2020.
At the national level, shrinkage of
the fleet combined with rising fuel efficiency will reinforce the trend of
declining oil use that has been under way since 2007. This means reduced
outlays for oil imports and thus more capital retained to invest in job
creation. As people walk and bike more, it will mean less air pollution and
fewer respiratory illnesses, more exercise and less obesity. This in turn will
also reduce health care costs.
Or at least that is the theory, on
the other hand in order for any manufacturer to stay in business long term they
have to increase their per vehicle retail pricing, or else they will for sure
go bankrupt. Today the meager profit per vehicle is quickly absorbed by just
one or two recalls, and few warranty repairs.
Question is: "Will consumers be
willing to pay a premium ?"; so that the Brand they buy will be in business few
years from now, or will they prefer to save thousands of dollars and buy a
vehicle from company that will not be around next year ?
Only time will tell, and your guess
is good as anybody else’s!
The United States is entering a new
era, evolving from a car-dominated transport system to one that is much more
diversified, this transition is driven by market saturation, economic trends,
environmental concerns and by a cultural shift away from cars that is most
pronounced among young people. As this evolution proceeds, it will affect
virtually every facet of life.
We have hundreds if not thousand e-mails annually that
are sent to SynLube,
Inc. asking us what is the best car or truck.
Unfortunately we do not have answer for what is the best
vehicle made today, we can only tell you what vehicles turned out to be the
best that are 5 to 10 years old, and of course no longer manufactured.
That is based on our experience that is communicated back
to us by our customers.
Predicting how good any Make or Model or Brand made in
2010 will be based in experience with the previously made vehicle is about as
useful as predicting return on stock or any investment based on it’s past
performance, simply it is impossible.
Manufacturers continuously change and modify components,
source the same parts from cheaper supplier, and so on.
You find out 5 or 7 or 10 years later how good a bet you
have made, and no one has the crystal ball that will with any certainty give
you any useful data on durability, reliability and cost per mile of any NEW car
or truck or SUV that you can buy in 2010.
Opinions in automotive magazines are based on personal
opinion of staff writers that at best spend few hours driving the particular
vehicle and most of which have no ability to even change their own vehicle’s
motor oil or even do simple under hood check.
Will you take their “advice” and “bet” $25,000 to $45,000
on it?
Will they care or give you a penny if their advice turns
out to be “bad”?
No, definitely NO !
Should you believe “Consumer Reports” that spent one afternoon testing “all” the
vehicles?
Or their vision of the future based on looking into the
rearview mirror of automotive reliability data?
Will they refund your subscription price if their advice
is “bad”?
No, definitely NO !
So what should you do?
Check the design yourself!
(APPENDIX B-2)
